Coastal Tremors

Posted by Mike Henderson on Jan. 3, 2009 at 10:50 AM

One-time superagent Jeff Moorad, who hit the spotlight by negotiating the contract that erstwhile Tribe star Manny Ramirez signed with the Sawx in 2000, is getting his 2009 off to a busy start out West.

The man who took over the D-Backs from iconic Phoenix sports entrepreneur and Diamondbacks founding CEO Jerry Colangelo in 2004 has just stepped down from the Snakes' leadership and says he has reached an agreement in principle to buy the San Diego Padres:

Moorad said Friday he heads a small but significant group of investors that has an exclusive right to complete the specifics of negotiations with Padres owner John Moores. . . .

Moorad said he has a long friendship with Moores and his wife, Becky, whose divorce precipitated the Padres' potential sale.

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What's liable to be the effect on the Padres on and off the field?

The San Diego club was fortuitously thrust into a rebuilding stance by the Mooreses' expensive divorce. While that distraction will go away as the Mooreses exit the ownership, the Padres should complete the work on making the club younger and better.  They're a good bit of the way along; only seven members of the 40-man squad are over 30.

Also fortuitously, division rivals San Francisco and Los Angeles are apparently prepared to bid themselves silly over Ramirez.  That would set back the start of the Giants' own needed rebuilding, and would hasten the onset of the Dodgers', either of which events would advantage the Padres. 

As for the Friars executive suite itself, it's too early to know what this will mean for the futures of executive vice president / general manager Kevin Towers or San Diego executive VP (and former Dodgers GM) Paul DePodesta.  Buster Olney's blog offers an interesting analysis of their situations as well as those of others within the Padres organization.

We would imagine that Towers -- perhaps best known to Nationals fans for his pointed remarks about the negotiating prowess of Nats GM Jim Bowden -- will remain a force in MLB leadership, either in San Diego or elsewhere.

And if DePodesta should suddenly hanker after another GM posting, we know of one team that could use his services.

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The Bradley Specter

Posted by Mike Henderson on Jan. 2, 2009 at 9:10 AM

If you want a legitimate reason for the Nats not to cast a fond eye upon Milton Bradley, consider that he's 31 years old. Ideally, a team that is at the Nats' rebuilding stage would be focusing on players like Adam Dunn and Cuban defector Yadel Marti, who are 29, as well as Marti's co-defector Yasser Gomez, who is 28.

True, we're only talking a few years' difference. But the Nats need core contributors for the long term -- not somebody who might end up being just a high-priced bopper for one or two seasons (followed by some number of years of decline).

Should the Nats vault into contention over the next couple years, they'd surely like to bring someone like Bradley along for the pennant race(s). But the players to build around now -- whoever they may be -- should be guys the Nats can expect to keep on board productively for as many seasons as possible.

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Suppose, however, that the Nats pick up Bradley anyhow.  Are they therefore doomed?  Apparently so, to hear some tell it.  (But David Pinto's succinct assessment must also be taken into account.)

The anti-Bradley arguments contain various wry nuances, depending on whom you ask.  It would appear, for example, that to acquire a guy who projects something like a .900 OPS would somehow give the Nats a dangerous surplus of outfielders.

That argument flies disingenuously in the face of the facts.

To be sure -- except in the case of a utilityman like Willie Harris or Leonard Davis who can start at another position -- only three outfielders can play at a time.  From today's 40-man roster, our own selections for everyday outfielders would be Josh Willingham in left, Lastings Milledge in center, and Austin Kearns in right. Elijah Dukes would be our first backup at any of the three positions, while Harris in left and Davis in right would log their share of playing time against right-handed pitchers.  (And if you want to swap Dukes and Kearns, we won't put up much of a fight.)

So what would happen if Bradley were to enter the mix?  Just this:  He would project a higher OPS than any current Nats outfielder.  And he would thus become the everyday center fielder, while Milledge would move to right and Kearns would move to the bench -- and, we'd hope, to the trade wire while there's still value to be realized for him.

Which would be the point of a Bradley signing.  Let's face it:  it's not very likely that guys like Kearns or Wily Mo Pena are going to be part of the Nats' first pennant winner.  But they could fill gaps for teams that are not as plentifully stocked in the outfield as the Nats are. (So could Bradley himself, for that matter.) From such teams, the Nats could try to realize useful returns: perhaps by getting back a prospect or two, perhaps by picking up a starting pitcher or a first baseman.

If the Nats can position themselves to do that kind of thing successfully, we'll take all the outfielders we can get.

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So it's not about "too many outfielders."  Why, then, all the horrified gasps when Bradley's name is mentioned?

His short fuse hasn't exactly earned him the upstanding-citizen reputation enjoyed by guys like Albert Pujols and Mark Teixeira. But why should that condemn him to the pariah status of a Barry Bonds or a John Rocker?

When the innuendo and the righteous indignation are set aside, it must be admitted that Bradley possesses -- in addition to a temper -- both a pretty good set of career numbers and a more-than-decent projection for the next few seasons. Given the choice, we'd happily choose him over, say, a Brett Myers or an A. J. Pierzynski, taking into account both talent and makeup.

Let's be candid about it. You want a team of lily-white Boy Scouts?  Fine: have fun at the Boy Scout tournament out in some gated lily-white suburb.

Our preference and hope is for a team of winning professional baseball players to people the home dugout at Nats Park.  If Bradley is part of that team, we'll be in the stands cheering him on.

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Milton Bradley is a Terrible Idea

Posted by Jeff Bergin on Jan. 1, 2009 at 11:43 AM

This must stop, and it must stop now. If the Nationals sign Milton Bradley to a free agent deal, the Nationals wil have placated a fan base "eager" for an "impact" bat and they will in effect ruin this team.  The Nationals currently have 75 outfielders, and wose than that, they are getting a reputation for bringing in reclamation projects in talent and mindset.  Milton Bradley would be the biggest gamble yet.

For a team boasting Lastings Milledge (not a touble kid, just a little immature), Scott Olsen (run-ins with teammates, coaches and the law twice), and Elijah Dukes (he makes PacMan Jones look tame), Milton Brdley would be the captain of the malcontents.  For a team building for the future, Bradley, 31, is a serious risk in both talent and personality.

Bradley's numbers last year with Texas were good--.321, 22 homeruns, 76 RBI and an impressive .436 on base percentage, yet his career numbers show a player more on par with Austin Kearns.  An investment in a player like this would be a risk, and all would show is that the team wants to make a "move" in the offseason.

I digress however, as rumors are strong that Bradley will end up in Chicago as the Cubs outfielder, and if those rumors are true, that takes Dunn off their list and puts him consistently on the Nationals radar.  In other news, if the Mets continue to focus on pitching and not moving Luis Castillo then the Nationals will be a major player for Oralando Hudson in 2009.  If they sign Dunn and Hudson in 2009, I will be renewing my season tickets. 

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Peeping at 2009

Posted by Mike Henderson on Dec. 31, 2008 at 9:05 PM

As a moth is drawn to a flame, so is this Hutch attracted to multivariate regression analysis as a statistical evaluation tool.  It will thus be no surprise that we consumed Rany Jazayerli's essay "The Break" in Baseball Prospectus' recent book It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over with lively interest.  If nothing else, it gives us a basis for SWAGging as we move into the slowest part of the offseason.

Among other things, Jazayerli's article unveils a model that weights teams' performance over the previous three seasons to estimate how they will do in the coming season. Using his prediction engine (which hasn't been adjusted for 2008 performances -- not that those will probably make much difference anyway -- and is heedless of offseason free-agent activity), let's see how the major leagues figure to shake out in 2009. Afterward, we'll consider what, if anything, these predictions signify.

NL East	W	L	Pct	GB
Philadelphia	87	75	.537	-
New York	87	75	.537	-
Florida	81	81	.500	6
Atlanta	77	85	.475	10
Washington	70	92	.432	17
NL Central	W	L	Pct	GB
Chicago	87	75	.537	-
Milwaukee	85	77	.525	2
St. Louis	83	79	.512	4
Houston	82	80	.506	5
Cincinnati	77	85	.475	10
Pittsburgh	72	90	.444	15
NL West	W	L	Pct	GB
Los Angeles	83	79	.512	-
Arizona	82	80	.506	1
Colorado	79	83	.488	4
San Francisco	75	87	.463	8
San Diego	75	87	.463	8
AL East	W	L	Pct	GB
Boston	90	72	.556	-
New York	88	74	.543	2
Tampa Bay	84	78	.519	6
Toronto	84	78	.519	6
Baltimore	73	89	.451	17
AL Central	W	L	Pct	GB
Minnesota	85	77	.525	-
Chicago	84	78	.519	1
Cleveland	83	79	.512	2
Detroit	80	82	.494	5
Kansas City	75	87	.463	10
AL West	W	L	Pct	GB
Anaheim	92	70	.568	-
Texas	79	83	.488	13
Oakland	79	83	.488	13
Seattle	73	89	.451	19

So what are these numbers good for anyhow?

They're not really meant to be accurate predictors.  Jazayerli's formula naturally dampens the projected results; in the real world, you can expect some team to win 100 games and/or some team to lose 100 games in any given season -- both of which happened in 2008.

What these numbers are, in each team's case, is something of a thumbnail indication of the current state of each franchise -- which would seem to be pretty good in, say, Anaheim, and pretty lousy in, say, Washington.

Where the story will really be told is at the end of the 2009 season, rather than at the beginning. To see what we mean, let's take this past year's predictions for our two local clubs as examples.

Last season, Jazayerli's model forecast a 76-86 record for the Nationals, and a 74-88 record for the Orioles. Neither team hit the mark.

The Nats, at 59-102, didn't even come close. Between the pitching falling apart and the number of guys on the injured list, that wasn't a huge surprise. But we really didn't have an inkling of how bad things might be until close to the beginning of the season, when John Patterson got released and Shawn Hill's availability first came into serious question. There were lots of other problems, to be sure, but it didn't take long for the Nats' season to degenerate from missed expectations straight through anticlimax and eventually into farce.  Of which, to be sure, the Natmosphere has not been unmindful, and which we confidently expect will translate into dismal box-office results in 2009.

As for the Orioles, their 68-94 record wasn't quite so bad, falling just six games behind the model's prediction. Considering that the team was only in its first full year of competent, unfettered management and untrammeled rebuilding since the early 1990s, that's not dreadful. But they still have a long way to go.

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This coming season, the model pegs the Nats to win just 70 and the Orioles 73. Does that seem fair?  And what does it mean?

It depends, of course, on how the rest of the offseason goes. (And most of all, lest we forget, on the outcomes of the games as they are played.)

But for the Nats to finish 15½ games behind projection this season would be a pretty damning indictment of the rebuilding effort to which we customarily refer as the Plan. The team will have had three-plus seasons to get the ship turned around under the Lerners' ownership, and folks will be expecting, if not a World Series win, at least a marked improvement in the win-loss column.

As for the Orioles, they're earlier on in the rebuilding process, and yet they already have Matt Wieters on the way. That doesn't mean that their pitching won't continue to cough up runs, leads, and decisions, but they probably stand a shot at winning something in the neighborhood of 70.

In the end, the biggest question for 2009 may be how much longer the patience of these beleaguered franchises' managements and fans will hold out. That's not something that's very susceptible to quantitative prediction.

But if either team exceeds the model's win expectations, that could well be a sign that progress is taking hold.  (Could Milton Bradley be part of that progress for the Nats?  Perhaps, but he'll be 31; we'd prefer that they go after 28-year-old Yasser Gomez.)

In either team's case, continued underperformance in 2009 needs to be brought to stern account in the front office and in the owners' suite, as it surely will be in the blogosphere.

Happy New Year, everybody.

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Next Stop, Rotation.

Posted by Jeff Bergin on Dec. 31, 2008 at 10:41 AM

Okay, this is the 900 pound gorilla in the corner that no one wants to talk about, but is THE most important thing for the Nationals in 2009.  Starting pitching. Really, any pitching.

The Nationals ended 2008 with a starting staff that had a 4.97 ERA, accounted for 34 of the 59 (57%) wins and 75 of the 103 (72%) losses. A staff that had two starters log 180 innings, but no one at 190 or higher, and only two other starters at 100 or more (Odalis Perez, 159 and Jason Bergmann, 125).  As a whole, this starting staff was abysmmal.

From a relief side, the once stalwart pen of 2006, 2007 was LONG GONE.  The relief ERA was 4.17, with a 1.40 WHIP, and 25 wins, 27 losses, 28 saves.  To put it in perspective, the NATIONALLY maligned Mets bullpen (the one that launched a thousand stories and millions of dollars in fixes) had an ERA of 4.27, 28 wins, 28 losses and 43 saves. 

I point this out to show that the PITCHING was a problem, whenever it was in the game.  For our purposes of fixes, lets first look at the rotation.

The current rotation looks this going into 2009:

1. Scott Olsen
2. Daniel Cabrera
3. John Lannan
4. Colin Balester
5. Shairon Martis/Jordan Zimmerman/??

While this looks like the same way we have tackled pitching in the past, there are some interesting names on the free agent market, and with prices going down, the Nationals can address some of their biggest issues via free agency: reliability and innings. Now the Nationals need to be careful not to lose draft picks, so free agents should only be signed if they can immediately add a couple of wins, or as reclamation projects who could be high reward (see Cabrera, Daniel).

• Jon Garland--bottom line is he is not that good, but he is a reliable innings eater who is 29 years old, and is FAR more effective than bringing in Livan Hernandez or Odalis Perez.  He has pitched in the AL his whole career, so a move to the NL East should drop his ERA a little.  He can immediately become the #1 starter, and hold that spot until the crop of young pitchers are ready.
• Randy Wolf--they have no chance of getting him as too many teams need a lefty pitcher, but Wolf has done well getting himself back in shape, and at 32 and a type B free agent (like Garland), the Nats lose nothing and gain a gutsy pitcher.
• Chuck James--27 years old, former starter for Atlanta who has gotten steadily worse since his 11-4 rookie season in Atlanta.  Take a flier on him, and spare Shairon Martis and Jordan Zimmerman from having to start the season. If he fails, bring the rookies in, but at 27, a one-two year minimum deal could incentivize James to get back on track.
• Gustavo Chacin--ALREADY SIGNED--great deal.  This guy pitched in Toronto and had some success as a starter before flaming out, but as a reclamation project, he can work his way back in the minors or come on as a 5th starter. 

The Nationals need to do one of the moves in addition to the one they already did with Chacin.  They need someone to put at the top of the rotation to take pressure off of Lannan and Olsen.  The key to relieved pressure is offense as addressed yesterday, but they need a pitcher they can ride for 2-3 years until the young kids (Martis, Balester, Detweiler, Zimmerman and the #1 prospective pick in the 2009 draft, Steven Strasburg) are ready.

Let's see what they do

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Dunn-Rite.

Posted by Jeff Bergin on Dec. 30, 2008 at 7:49 PM

I cannot believe I am going to say this - the Nationals should sign Adam Dunn.  I have long used this space to blast Adam Dunn, and as a baseball fan, I have never really loved his game, but there are some really important things we should examine when talking about Dunn.

• 8 seasons in the bigs and an average OBP of .381 to with a .247 BA - terrible BA, but great OBP (a la Ryan Howard).
• An average of 40 HR and 96 RBI in 8 seasons with 5 straight years of 40 HR - meaning he is steroid free as we saw HR's dip the last two seasons. 
• Now that Mark Teixeira has signed his $22M deal, Dunn remains the best team-oriented bat on the board (Manny is the best, but come on). 

I know, it sounds like this is like I am an idiot--of course we should sign Dunn since we lost out on Teixeira, but this is more than to make a splash and a list of numbers.  Dunn provides surprising flexibility for the Nationals, let me detail.

Chris Marerro, our prized prospect who is still by all accounts our prized prospect, is only 19/20 years old and plays OF/1B.  His leg injury last year cut short what appeared to be a meteoric rise and potential September callup (despite his .250 BA).  An Adam Dunn signing and move to 1B allows Marrerro to work on his pitch recognition in the minors and get a full season to season and a half in the system.  If he progresses well, he can slot to either first or OF, and can play whatever position Dunn does not.  This allows the Nationals to waive goodbye to Austin Kearns and have an OF of either Milledge, Dukes, Marrerro/Dunn or Milledge, Marrerro/Dunn, Willingham if Dukes has gone off the reservation.  What is nice about that is that it preserves the infield of either Marrerro/Dunn, Zimmerman, Guzman and ?? at second base (I am hoping Orlando Hudson, but that is another article). 

All in all, Dunn's signing does many things for the Nationals--it allows them to continue their growth plan with their #1 prospect, it provides them with an impact bat to surround Milledge, Dukes and Zimmerman, and it gives their fans hope and legitimacy that this ownership can sign a top flight free agent and beat out the Cubs, Dodgers, etc.

Next stop to analyze, pitching fortunes

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We're Ready If They Are

Posted by Mike Henderson on Dec. 30, 2008 at 8:35 AM

Cuba still doesn't get it. That nation's repressive policies just cost it the services of pitcher Yadel Marti and outfielder Yasser Gomez, who recently defected and are on their way to freedom in the Dominican Republic.

Marti, 29, was an All-Star in the 2006 World Baseball Classic, pitching 12 2/3 scoreless innings and earning a win and two saves. Gomez, 28, possesses a reputation as a fast outfielder and a career batting average of .331. Both were banned from this year's Cuban National Series after reportedly being caught trying to leave the country by boat.

That time their escape didn't work, but this time they evidently had better luck. We wish them safe travels and expect that there will be plenty of MLB executives waiting to get a chance to interview them once they arrive in the D.R. Here's hoping that Nats scouting director Dana Brown and scouting assistant Deric Ladnier are among that number.

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Welcome to I-81 Paradise

Posted by Mike Henderson on Dec. 28, 2008 at 10:25 AM

Smart MLB teams have for some years been making significant investments in their player development systems.  (Like the Yankees, for instance:  notwithstanding their well-earned reputation as free-agent spendthrifts, they currently also have what might be the strongest minor-league system in baseball.)

Player development isn't the only return on investment, though.  MLB clubs are also marketing their minor-league teams intelligently to strengthen their brand image.

Look at what Cleveland, for instance, has accomplished in the last few seasons. Four of their top five affiliates are now in Ohio: the triple-A Columbus Clippers, double-A Akron Aeros, low-single-A Lake County Captains and short-season-A Mahoning Valley Scrappers.  This Hutch calls that market saturation, and we tip our curly-W cap to the Tribe.

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The Nationals aren't quite there yet, but they're working on it. Their high-single-A affiliate since 2005 would be your Mills Cup Champion Potomac Nationals. Low-single-A has emigrated from Florida to the much handier environs of Hagerstown. Meanwhile Harrisburg has remained the Nats' double-A affiliate.

And the Nats would love to have been able to scoop up Richmond as an affiliate when the Braves moved their triple-A team to Georgia. To make that happen, though, they'd have needed to find an ownership group that was willing both to affiliate with the Nats and to relocate their team to Richmond. That wasn't happening.

What did end up happening wasn't bad at all. The ownership in Syracuse, New York, having wearied of decades of mediocre Blue Jays' triple-A clubs, excused themselves from that affiliation at the end of last season and signed up with the Nats.

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So, at least as long as gasoline stays relatively affordable, you can tool up and down Interstate 81 and catch lots of future Nationals in action. Here are the thumbnail logistics for Washingtonians, starting from the junction of 270 and the Beltway.

Hagerstown Suns (low-single-A): About an hour and a quarter up the road. Take 270 north to I-70 west and exit at US 40 west in Hagerstown. A couple miles along, hook a left at the signal onto Mount Aetna Road. Follow the bright lights to Municipal Stadium. Bonus: You can stop in Frederick, a little more than halfway to Hagerstown, and catch the high-single-A Keys at Harry Grove Stadium -- an extra bonus if they should happen to be hosting the P-Nats.

Harrisburg Senators (double-A): From Hagerstown, any reasonable route to downtown Harrisburg will do. I-81 north, then PA-581 east over to I-83 north gets you there in about an hour and a half, or you can wend your way along more scenic roads if you've an extra half-hour or so to spend.  (If you're skipping Hagerstown, your best bet is probably 270 north through Frederick, then US 15 north to PA-581 east and on into Harrisburg.)  Once in downtown Harrisburg you can either drive or walk across the Market Street Bridge to City Island.

Syracuse Chiefs (triple-A): This is the big haul. From downtown Harrisburg back over to I-81 north to downtown Syracuse is four and a half to six hours, depending on traffic and how many freeways you choose to avoid.  Bonuses:  You could stop at triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (Yankees) or at double-A Binghamton (Mets) to break up the trip some.

We'll be back with more, including the Ultimate Nats Farm Trip Itinerary, as the 2009 minor-league season draws closer.

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Goodbye, Suckers

Posted by Mike Henderson on Dec. 26, 2008 at 8:20 AM

Roch Kubatko reports at MASN:

. . . I've heard from a reliable source that [Mark Teixeira] turned down about $5 million more from the Nationals to sign with the Yankees. And the Nats would have gone higher, but were never given the chance. Teixeira jumped at Brian Cashman's first offer.

I guess it wasn't ALL about the money - just mostly about it. Being on a contender every year also brings a certain appeal.

The title of Kubatko's article is "For Teixeira, the choice was Yankees or Nationals." This Hutch doesn't see it that way.

Let's face it: Teixeira was always a Yankee. 

It was just a matter of Teixeira and his agent, Scott Boras, getting the Nats, Orioles, Sawx, and Angels into a price war until the bidding reached a level that suited them. Then they could notify the Yankees that it was safe to get into the picture if they felt like it.

Just think:  Wouldn't poker be more fun if you could ante -- or, better yet, check -- and then skip a few rounds of betting until most of the other players were "all in," finally having a chance to top everybody else's wager (in this case, with a combination of money and intangibles) and rake in the pot without ever having to bet again, let alone face your cards?

Well, we've all been around this block once or twice. Did anyone really expect anything resembling honest negotiations from a Boras foray?

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Let's put recent events into perspective.

The Nats elected -- correctly -- to spend the last several seasons mostly husbanding their resources and rebuilding the eviscerated player-development system, rather than piddling money away year in and year out on overpriced, well-worn free agents.  (The latter, of course, is what the team up the road idiotically used to do before Andy MacPhail took the reins, and is what Thomas Boswell unaccountably scolds the Nats for not having done themselves, supposedly to make the club more attractive to someone like Teixeira.) 

They haven't done everything right. For example, they should have traded Alfonso Soriano in midseason 2006, and might have done a better job this past season evaluating the signability of Aaron Crow.  So they're not as far along as they could be.

But they were right to choose the current offseason to compete for a player who could have helped take the franchise to the next level -- in the process of which they instead got played by Teixeira, Boras and the Yankees. The only consolation is that they weren't alone.

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OK, so that's that. What should the Nats be doing next?

Keep going after Adam Dunn, for one thing. They're doing right by evaluating the appropriateness of a Dunn acquisition to the ongoing long-term Plan. But if they confirm that Dunn is a guy around whom they can build, then they know what they need to do.

How about Orlando Hudson? We can actually see Hudson making better sense if Dunn comes on board than if he doesn't. In the latter event, they should tread with a little more caution: at 31, absent another high-powered and slightly younger veteran teammate, Hudson would give the team a couple less years to kick the Plan into high gear.

Manny Ramirez? No. (Our readers, judging by the poll to your left, would apparently concur.)

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Wish List

Posted by Mike Henderson on Dec. 24, 2008 at 6:35 PM

Every man has a place, in his heart there's a space,
and the world can't erase his fantasies . . .

Well, OK, so life's not fair -- Tex, how could you let us down? -- but this time of year it sure seems to us that everybody deserves to have at least one wish granted.  Here are a few we're rooting for.

Fellow Natmospherian The Raph of Natscast is spending the holidays being treated for thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura -- TTP to us non-clinical types and not much fun to anybody. He tells us he's got his appetite back and is mowing down the hospital chow, which is confirmation of a good appetite if anything is. With luck he'll be back in uniform (fedora and celluloid sleeve protectors) by spring training.

Meantime, this guy's request is quite modest -- he just wants to come on the Nationals Winter Caravan. Making that happen would seem to be pretty easy, and would grant a wish for a lot of fans too -- so how about it, Nats?

And we're sure hoping these folks get where they're headed safely.

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What's on your wish list, readers?

Among the items on ours is a fond hope for many more fun and happy times in the coming year, as we spend time together at Nats Park and here at NationalsPride.com.

Oh, and, of course, let's Bring Hondo Home! (We've hung the extra-large stocking on the chimney for that one.)

Safe travels and a peaceful holiday season, everybody.

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